Dissolve the people, elect a new one...

Tom Nicholson has discovered that Fico is not the devil incarnate. In a Slovak language opinion piece for Aktualne, he writes that Fico is actually just what the people need:

Fico nemyslel všetky svoje predvolebné sľuby vážne, a ani voliči ho vážne nebrali - v tejto harmónii dopytu a ponuky tkvie tajomstvo premiérovej popularity. Áno, ľudia si potrebujú oddýchnuť od neustále stúpajúcich cien energií, od zväčšujúcej sa priepasti medzi bohatými a chudobnými a od úzkoprsej medzinárodnej politiky.

Fico didn't mean all his pre-election promises, but voters didn't take them seriously either - this harmony of supply and demand is the secret of his popularity. People need a rest from ever higher energy prices, from the increasing gap between the rich and poor and a blinkered foreign policy.

This fits in with other ideas that blame the people of Central Europe for recent victories by populists. Here's our own ex-PM, Dzurina, talking to the AP:

Mikulas Dzurinda, the former prime minister of Slovakia, oversaw major pro-market reforms including a flat tax that created strong economic growth.

He acknowledges that voters are disillusioned to find themselves still lagging so far behind the West.

"People thought there was something like a Marshall Plan for the eastern part of Europe that would automatically allow us to reach the richest countries in the union," Dzurinda told the Associated Press. "Now I notice something like frustration."

The Washington Post has a similar piece about "Backsliding in Central Europe" which also says voters are taking a break, indulging their base instincts but the Post is optimistic that it'll all soon be back to the serious business:

It may be satisfying for Polish nationalists to pretend that Germany is an antagonist or for Hungarians to try equating their current Socialist leaders with the Stalinists of 1956. Yet after 45 years of bitter experience under despotism, Central Europeans won't quickly abandon Western-style democracy or its alliances.

What a comforting vision this actually is for the right! They don't have to do anything, just wait for the people to get this need for a populist bender out of their system and come to their senses. No wonder no party in Slovakia is changing its leader. But they are all making a mistake, at least as far as Slovakia is concerned. Here's psephologist Kevin Deagan Krause:

Along with many others, I have noted elsewhere that even though Slovakia exhibits considerable variability in electoral results (it has one of the highest average levels of volatility in the region) there is actually a significant degree of continuity within electoral blocs.

Krause divides Slovak politics into three blocks: the Right (SMK, KDH, SDKU and their splinter parties), the Left (Smer, the Communists) and the Nationalists (HZDS and SNS). Although there are huge changes between parties, people stick within their block. In fact, in this year's election, the vote of the "responsible" right actually went up very slightly and the main switch was from the nationalists to the so-called Social Democratic Smer (though that may be because the Slovak people worked out Fico was a nationalist long before the Eurosocialists did).

The Slovak people have not changed how they vote, what has changed is the politicians. The defeat of the right is a result of the anihilation of the liberal ANO and the centrist SF, just as the miraculous victory of the right in 2002 had nothing to do with the people recognising the need for reform and everything to do with the schism in the SNS that kept them out of parliament.

In 2002 all the parties were very serious about getting into the EU, especially the right and they surpressed their disputes, by and large. I even think the SNS schism can be tied to the EU, as Anna Malikova tried to move the SNS away from Jan Slota's heavy anti-Roma racism and introduced the Anti-SMK policies which were originally supposed to be more moderate and pro-European. Once Slovakia was safely in the EU the politicians started settling their scores. Dzurinda ejected the SF lobbyist group from his party. The KDH tried to start culture wars and Pavol Rusko and ANO grabbed any money left in plain view. There was also a sense that EU membership must be made to work for the nation. Dzurinda talked about Slovakia "wringing out every last penny" from the structural funds. Fico, of course, let himself completely off the hook, pushing the rhetoric of national salvation and the government as traitors, which raised the SNS along with his boat.

So why does Fico have 50% approval? Because he has done nothing left wing. He hasn't attacked the church or brought in civic partnerships. He is giving extra money to pensioners, teachers and doctors, not the Roma. Social conservatism, welfare and down with the enemies of the state: he could have been in Tiso's cabinet. Fico has made a national(ist) socialist alliance. If he can hold it together he can rule for a long time because the odds are that Dzurinda and friends aren't going to break their 30 - 40% (with Hungarians) without a radical change.

Washington Post, Dzurinda, Nicholson, the people aren't going to come back to you, because the people haven't gone anywhere. Time to prepare that universal solvent...